21 certificates. Three Florida counties. One thing I only saw the next morning.
The auctions went well — better than I expected going in. Capital deployed, season underway.
But not all of it.
I’d set aside capital for the counties with the most action — the ones I figured would carry the season. But in those counties the competition bid the rate down below my threshold, and I don’t bid below it. So I mostly didn’t win there. The capital I’d set aside just sat. Doing nothing.
Meanwhile, the quieter counties — fewer people chasing the same certificates — left the rate above my floor. That’s where I kept winning, and where the season actually came from.
The capital was in the wrong place. I’d pointed it at the loud counties, where it couldn’t clear my rate, instead of the quiet ones, where it could.
That’s the part nobody warns you about. The county with the most competition feels like where you should be. It’s usually where your capital goes to sit. The quiet county — the one with less action — is where the rate respects you and the money actually works.
Three years in, I still allocated toward the noise instead of toward where my rate held. The reps don’t make you immune. They just make you see it faster the next morning.
If you want to follow this path as it develops — I’ll write what I see.
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